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This space provides the latest data that is available to us on key financial indicators.  This is for the most part the official government picture on the economic climate in Vietnam.   Please read this data in conjunction with Vietnam Vignettes ,  the various Business Articles , and our Service pages in order to learn more about Vietnam and V V G.  Please write to us  with your business-related questions when you consider a project in Vietnam and want to know more about us.
 

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Current as of  the month reported, data sources include VVG original research,  General Statistical Office, MPI, International Herald Tribune, Vietnam Investment Review, Saigon Times Weekly, and Vietnam Economic Times.  Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves and is really anyone's guess, as the system lacks transparency.

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Rates of Inflation & Currency Exchange

Current Rate of Inflation: See Special Report 26.72% (Year to year - 2008): Year 2008 to date: 21.64%  By way of historical reference, in 1986 and the start of the "Doi Moi" or "renovation" program, inflation stood at 774.7%.  By 1995 that rate had dropped to 12.7%. See prior reports  or above for a more complete, historical picture. 

Current and Recent monthly rates of inflation:

NOTES:
1. See IHT http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/05/27/business/AS-FIN-ECO-Vietnam-Inflation.php  the WSJ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121206638209529225.html?mod=googlenews_wsj  and V V G Special Report by clicking here.

2. VET but not corroborated by any international media source.

3. http://www.reutersfxhub.com/fxhub/forex-news-detail.jsf?newsId=23992&title=Vietnam%20inflation%20hits%2026.8%20percent%20in%20June  and
http://www.intellasia.net/news/articles/economy/111245794.shtml

4. http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/07/24/business/AS-Vietnam-Inflation.php and  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7522804.stm

5. http://www.asianewsnet.net/news.php?id=1114&sec=2 and http://www.tbic.vn/english/83/tbic_details.aspx?DataID=12372

6. http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/09/22/business/AS-Vietnam-Inflation.php and http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20080922/vietnams-inflation-hits-27-9-percent-in-sept.htm

7. http://www.lse.co.uk/MacroEconomicNews.asp?ArticleCode=0wck1xajynbiicf&ArticleHeadline=october_inflation_slows_in_vietnams_largest_city  and http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5j7TKWuJQknylKvT5PP2Sj3R1igjw

Historical annual rates of inflation:

Current Rate of Exchange Buying VND using cash in new bills denominated in $100 or $50 only; US dollar to Vietnam dong Tuesday 17 Nov 2008 

[The introduction in year 2001 of the VND 100,000 "brown" (now green) note worth US$ 6.04 at the current official exchange rate, helps to ease, if not speed, the rate of spending.  The new VND 500,000 "brown" note is now worth about US$ 31.19 at the current official rate.  When we first arrived in January 1994 the standard bank note was the VND 5,000 note while the largest bank note was the then very new VND 20,000 "green" bill, then worth US$1.90 and now convertible at $1.18 at the prevailing Interbank rate].

Outstanding External Debt in US$ millions (ADB): 1997 - 11,612;  1998 - 10.8; 1999 - 11.1;
2000 - 13.9;  2001 - 14.4;  2002¹ - 12,500

1. Gross external debt is put at US$14.0 billion or 38% of gross domestic product (GDP), reportedly mainly made up of low-interest ODA lending. Net external debt is put at 18.5% of currency external receipt. (Source Fitch Report via STW)

Index                                                                                                  

Balance of Trade US$ billions (VET November 2008 and other public reports)
Note: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here are not always consistent with those from other services.  When we are aware of substantial discrepancies, we mention them.  We also pass on any explanation that is offered, which is very rare. 

Because changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line  for such historic details as they may need.  This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

1.  Year 2000  [VET January 2001]. Numbers in blue are from Vietnam's GSO
 

 Index 

Growth Rate of Merchandise Exports as a percent of change from the prior year (ADB)

Change in Consumer Prices expressed as a percent of change from the prior year (Dec 04 VET)

GDP Growth (%) Government Statistics Bureau/ADB/IMF/UPI

1. The State reduced this figure from 7.5 to 7.1 in October 2001, which the World Bank supports.
2.  The Ministry of Finance http://www.mof.gov.vn/DefaultE.aspx?tabid=356&ItemID=49786
3. ADB as reported by http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/08/25/business/AS-Vietnam-Inflation.php

Index 

GDP (converted to US$)   US$ 1 = VND 15,000 (constant) Reported in billion dollars

1. US Department of State

Index 

GDP per capita household consumption (converted to US$)  VND 1 = US$  16,000¹ (constant) 

1 as of 1 September 2005. We caution readers that these numbers were previously converted at 1 US$ to 14,000 VND and at 15,000 VND as constants. Thus when looking at the actual GDP per capita for 1995 at the time, please first convert to VND at the current rate and then use the  rate of conversion then current (11,500 to 1) for US$ 278.26

2 This number is derived by taking the most recently announced GDP for year 2000 of US$30.6 billion and dividing by the estimated total population of 79 million. The reports of Vietnam's per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are all over the mark.  VBJ, an early source of our numbers (in blue), is no longer published.  While VET has been reporting that the GDP per capita was at and above US$ 301 since 1996, Vietnam Investment Review in mid-year 20000 - a publication of the MPI - reports:

 [The average income [broke] $250 a year for the first time....  Monthly income per person reached VND 295,000 ($21.07) in 1999, a 30.1 per cent increase on 1996 and equivalent to an annual $252.86. (455 VIR 4, 3-9 July 2000). 

VIR cites figures from the General Statistics Department of Vietnam.  The actual number is as elusive as are most official numbers in Vietnam and will remain so until Vietnam's reporting becomes transparent. However, as the GDP numbers are substantially under those of the "news" media, we suspect the GDP numbers are the more accurate.

3. It is claimed (VIR, Jan 2002 p10) that this reported range is determined under the Parity Purchase Power method (PPM). 

• No explanation is offered if this is the same as the United Nation's Purchase Power Parity (PPP) system, designed "to show the different levels of spending power on a country by country basis. A market basket of such items as average incomes, taxes, interest rates, insurance, utilities, gasoline, milk, newspapers and other typical expenses are compared and used to devise the PPP. The standard is based on the USA=100," or who the PPP is now made into a range and used by the State to report GDP. 
• The CIA defines GDP as the value of all final goods and services produced within a nation in a given year and computed on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP) rather than value as measured on the basis of the rate of exchange.
• The World Bank reports that in 2001 per capita household consumption (in constant 1995 US dollars) was $256. Household consumption includes expenditures of individuals, households, and nongovernmental organizations on goods and services, excluding purchases of dwellings.

 For a more complete read on the PPP system developed by the United Nations, please write to VVG to receive a copy by E-mail.

The more widely accepted sum for year 2001 is $399.

4.  Source: Ministry of Finance, as reported in the 726VIR4 September 12-18, 2005 that also reports Per Capita Income for the same period at US$ 384

5. US Department of State

6. BKK Post 18 Oct 06, quoting PM Dung.

Index 

Foreign Capital Investment ¹

Caveat: All publications in Vietnam are subject to strict State censorship and State propagandizing.  The numbers reported here change dramatically from time-to-time. The numbers of projects seem to decrease or increase without regard to the value of the projects or the steel in the ground. There is rarely an explanation offered. 

Because the changes are so frequent and unsubstantiated, we encourage readers to refer to prior reports on line  or above for such historic details as they may need.  This is the most current and best data available from public sources, even though the accuracy of all these numbers is anyone's guess.

These numbers do not include ODA disbursements that in 2004 has been variably reported but in the range of  $2.8 billion. This has been increased to $3.4 billion for 2005. Despite its fast-growing economy, averaging seven per cent a year, the country still relies on foreign aid to build schools, clinics, road and power grids. $25 billion was earlier pledged from 1999 to 2003.

As of October 22, 2008 (November 2008 VET)  9,673 [vs. 9,581 last month] projects  with Total Investment Capital US$ 144.42 billion [vs. $142.229 billion last month] and Implemented Capital of US$ 51.28 billion [vs. $50.505 last month].³ 

Where the numbers increase or decrease month-on-month, we've added a corresponding +/- respectively. Where no change is reported, no symbol follows the number.  We have no explanations for the changes but invite readers to review the previous month's Economic Indicators for further research. Determining accuracy in these reported numbers is akin to reading tea leaves as the system lacks transparency.

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